Does consumer sentiment foretell revolving credit use?

被引：8

作者：

Lamdin D.J. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Economics, University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, MD 21250

来源：

Journal of Family and Economic Issues | 2008年 / 29卷 / 2期

关键词：

Causality tests; Consumer confidence; Consumer credit; Revolving credit;

D O I：

10.1007/s10834-008-9099-6

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The rising level of consumer debt in the U.S. is well documented. Revolving credit (credit cards) has experienced this growth, with the level of outstanding revolving credit increasing by over 600% in inflation-adjusted dollars over the past three decades. The goal here is to gauge the extent to which consumer sentiment; namely, the University of Michigan Survey Research Center Index of Consumer Sentiment, has predictive power in explaining the aggregate use of revolving credit using time-series data. The results generally show that changes in the consumer sentiment measure are related to subsequent changes in revolving credit use. © 2008 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

引用

页码：279 / 288

页数：9

共 16 条

[1] Baccheta P., Gerlach S., Consumption and credit constraints: International evidence, Journal of Monetary Economics, 40, pp. 207-238, (1997)
[2] Baek E., Hong G., Effects of life-cycle stages on consumer debts, Journal of Family and Economic Issues, 25, pp. 359-385, (2004)
[3] Bryant W.D.A., MacRi J., Does sentiment explain consumption?, Journal of Economics and Finance, 29, pp. 97-111, (2005)
[4] De Boef S., Kellstedt P.M., The political (and economic) origins of consumer confidence, American Journal of Political Science, 48, pp. 633-649, (2004)
[5] Dominitz J., Manski C.F., How should we measure consumer confidence?, Journal of Economic Perspectives, 18, pp. 51-66, (2004)
[6] Dunn L.F., Mirzaie I.A., Turns in consumer confidence: An information advantage linked to manufacturing, Economic Inquiry, 44, pp. 343-351, (2006)
[7] Garrett T.A., Hernandez-Murillo R., Owyang M.T., Does consumer sentiment predict regional consumption?, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 87, pp. 123-135, (2005)
[8] Gelper S., Lemmens A., Croux C., Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: Decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain, Applied Economics, 39, pp. 1-11, (2007)
[9] Howrey E.P., The predictive power of the Index of Consumer Sentiment, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 1, pp. 175-216, (2001)
[10] Kwan A.C.C., Cotsomitis J.A., Can consumer attitudes forecast household spending in the United States? Further evidence from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, Southern Economic Journal, 71, pp. 136-144, (2004)

← 1 2 →