An information platform for scenario analysis in technology foresight problems

被引：4

作者：

M. Z. Zgurovskii

N. D. Pankratova

机构：

[1] National Technical University of Ukraine Kiev Polytechnical Institute, Kiev

[2] Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine, Kiev

来源：

Cybernetics and Systems Analysis | 2003年 / 39卷 / 4期

关键词：

Expert estimation; Information platform; Qualitative analysis; Scenario analysis; Technology foresight;

D O I：

10.1023/B:CASA.0000003506.97138.de

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The most efficient practical methods of technology foresight problem solution are systematized. Formalized procedures and mathematical expert estimation methods, used for expert estimation of different-nature objects and processing of examination results, are proposed. They form the basis of an information platform for solution to foresight problems. An example of coordination of expert estimates is given. © 2003 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

引用

页码：564 / 575

页数：11

共 7 条

[1]

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[2]

Zgurovsky M.Z., The role of technology foresight in economic transformations of Ukraine, Proc. UNIDO Technology Foresight Summit, pp. 7-25, (2003)

[3]

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[4]

Pankratova N.D., Software for technology foresight problems as applied to an industry, Systemni Doslidzhennya ta Informatsiini Tekhnologii, 1, pp. 26-33, (2003)

[5]

Zgurovskii M.Z., Scenario analysis as a systems foresight methodology, Systemni Doslidzhennya ta Informatsiini Tekhnologii, 1, pp. 7-38, (2002)

[6]

The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications, (1975)

[7]

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