Measuring the goodness-of-fit of decision-tree models of discrete and continuous activity-travel choice: Methods and empirical illustration

被引：1

作者：

Theo Arentze

Harry Timmermans

机构：

[1] Eindhoven University of Technology, Urban Planning Group, Eindhoven

来源：

Journal of Geographical Systems | 2003年 / 5卷 / 2期

关键词：

Action assignment; Activity-travel choice; Decision tree induction; Goodness of fit; Likelihood measures;

D O I：

10.1007/s10109-003-0097-9

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The use of decision tree models for predicting activity-travel choice is receiving increasing attention, but raises two related problems that are considered in this study. First, commonly used deterministic action-assignment rules should be replaced by probabilistic action-assignment rules. We develop such probabilistic rules for both discrete and continuous choice problems. Second, common goodness-of-fit measures such as the hit-ratio need to be replaced by likelihood measures. In this paper, we develop and empirically illustrate the interrelated methods and measures. The findings suggest that the new measures add information to existing statistics for discrete as well as the continuous choice.

引用

页码：185 / 206

页数：21

共 21 条

[1]

Arentze T.A., Timmermans H.J.P., A learning-based transportation oriented simulation system, Transportation Research B, (2003)

[2]

Arentze T.A., Timmermans H.J.P., Re-induction of Albatross' decision rules using pooled activity-travel diary data and an extended set of land use and costs-related condition states, The 82th Transportation Research Board Meeting, (2003)

[3]

Arentze T.A., Timmermans H.J.P., Measuring impacts of condition variables in rule-based models of space-time choice behavior: Method and empirical illustration, Geographical Analysis, (2003)

[4]

Arentze T., Hofman F., Van Mourik H., Timmermans H., Wets G., Using decision tree induction systems for modeling space-time behavior, Geographical Analysis, 32, pp. 330-350, (2000)

[5]

Arentze T., Borgers A., Hofman F., Fujii S., Joh C., Kikuchi A., Kitamura R., Timmermans H., Van der Waerden P., Rule-based versus utility-maximizing models of activity-travel patterns: A comparison of empirical performance, Travel Behaviour Research: The Leading Edge, pp. 569-584, (2001)

[6]

Arentze T., Hofman F., Van Mourik H., Timmermans H., The spatial transferability of the Albatross model system: Empirical evidence from two case studies, The 81-th Transportation Research Board Meeting, (2002)

[7]

Bhat C.R., A comprehensive and operational analysis framework for generating the daily activity travel profiles of workers, The 78th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board, (1999)

[8]

Breiman L., Friedman J.H., Olshen R.A., Stone C.J., Classification and Regression Trees, (1984)

[9]

Ettema D.F., Borgers A.W.J., Timmermans H.J.P., A simulation model of activity scheduling behavior, Transportation Research Record, 1413, pp. 1-11, (1993)

[10]

Greaves S., Stopher P., Creating a synthetic household travel/activity survey - Rationale and feasibility analysis, The 79th Annual Transportation Research Board Meeting, (2000)

← 1 2 3 →