Quantifying the impacts of climate change and extreme climate events on energy systems

被引：63

作者：

A. T. D. Perera

Vahid M. Nik

Deliang Chen

Jean-Louis Scartezzini

Tianzhen Hong

机构：

[1] École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL),Solar Energy and Building Physics Laboratory (LESO

[2] Urban Energy Systems Laboratory,PB)

[3] EMPA,Division of Building Physics, Department of Building and Environmental Technology

[4] Lund University,Division of Building Technology, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering

[5] Chalmers University of Technology,Institute for Future Environments

[6] Queensland University of Technology,Regional Climate Group, Department of Earth Sciences

[7] Garden Point Campus,undefined

[8] University of Gothenburg,undefined

[9] Building Technology and Urban Systems Division,undefined

[10] Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory,undefined

来源：

Nature Energy | 2020年 / 5卷

关键词：

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Climate induced extreme weather events and weather variations will affect both the demand of energy and the resilience of energy supply systems. The specific potential impact of extreme events on energy systems has been difficult to quantify due to the unpredictability of future weather events. Here we develop a stochastic-robust optimization method to consider both low impact variations and extreme events. Applications of the method to 30 cities in Sweden, by considering 13 climate change scenarios, reveal that uncertainties in renewable energy potential and demand can lead to a significant performance gap (up to 34% for grid integration) brought by future climate variations and a drop in power supply reliability (up to 16%) due to extreme weather events. Appropriate quantification of the climate change impacts will ensure robust operation of the energy systems and enable renewable energy penetration above 30% for a majority of the cities.

引用

页码：150 / 159

页数：9

共 65 条

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