Topographic determinants of foot and mouth disease transmission in the UK 2001 epidemic

被引：30

作者：

Savill N.J. ^{[1
,2
]}

Shaw D.J. ^{[3
]}

Deardon R. ^{[1
,7
]}

Tildesley M.J. ^{[4
]}

Keeling M.J. ^{[4
]}

Woolhouse M.E.J. ^{[2
]}

Brooks S.P. ^{[1
]}

Grenfell B.T. ^{[5
,6
]}

机构：

[1] Statistical Laboratory, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0WB, Wilberforce Road

[2] Institute of Infection and Immunology Research, School of Biological Sciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, EH9 3JT, West Mains Road

[3] Veterinary Clinical Studies, University of Edinburgh, Easter Bush Veterinary Centre, Roslin, Midlothian

[4] Ecology and Epidemiology Group, Department of Biological Sciences, University of Warwick, Coventry, CV4 7AL, Gibbet Hill Road

[5] Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Entomology and Biology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

[6] Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda

[7] Cambridge Infectious Diseases Consortium, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, CB3 0ES, Madingley Road

来源：

BMC Veterinary Research | / 2卷 / 1期

关键词：

Euclidean Distance; Short Route; Mouth Disease; Minor Road; Road Distance;

D O I：

10.1186/1746-6148-2-3

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background: A key challenge for modelling infectious disease dynamics is to understand the spatial spread of infection in real landscapes. This ideally requires a parallel record of spatial epidemic spread and a detailed map of susceptible host density along with relevant transport links and geographical features. Results: Here we analyse the most detailed such data to date arising from the UK 2001 foot and mouth epidemic. We show that Euclidean distance between infectious and susceptible premises is a better predictor of transmission risk than shortest and quickest routes via road, except where major geographical features intervene. Conclusion: Thus, a simple spatial transmission kernel based on Euclidean distance suffices in most regions, probably reflecting the multiplicity of transmission routes during the epidemic. © 2006 Savill et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

引用

共 16 条

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