An ARPS-CMAQ Modeling Approach for Assessing the Atmospheric Assimilative Capacity of the Beijing Metropolitan Region

A coupled ARPS–CMAQ modeling system was applied to investigate the atmospheric assimilative capacity (AAC) of PM10 in the Beijing metropolitan region of China. The AAC was defined as the maximum allowable pollutant emission that can be discharged to the atmosphere without violating the desired air quality objective in the planning region. The coupled modeling system was firstly evaluated through comparing the simulation results of PM10 concentration with the corresponding observations during four representative months in 2002, which showed an acceptable modeling performance. By using a trial-and-error approach, the validated modeling system was run through gradually reducing the emission strength within the modeling domain from a GIS-based pollutant emission database until a desired air quality objective was achieved. The air quality objective was characterized by the air quality guideline-satisfaction ratio (AQGSR) which was defined as the ratio of days when the daily PM10 concentrations are below the air quality standard during a certain time period. The PM10 emission within the modeling domain after such trial-and-error reduction under the condition of satisfying a certain AQGSR was considered its corresponding assimilative capacity. Accordingly, the atmospheric assimilative capacities of PM10 in the study region were identified corresponding to the AQGSR of 60, 65, 70, 75 and 80%, respectively. The relation between such capacity and guideline-satisfaction ratio was then established through regression analysis. The results could provide sound basis for decision makers in terms of effective air quality management by understanding the allowable pollutant discharge under different desired air quality objectives.