Investigating the spatial pattern of the characteristics of the onset and cessation of the rains in Nigeria

The characteristics of the onset and cessation of the rains investigated in this study are early, normal and late onset and cessation. The spatial pattern of these parameters were investigated for Nigeria using rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data analyzed for the period between 1959-1990. Furthermore, 4 major rainfall producing mechanisms that could be responsible for the observed pattern of these parameters in Nigeria were also investigated using the stepwise multiple regression analysis. It was found that Inter-Tropical Discontinuity appeared as the most significant rainfall producing factor for predicting the spatial variation in the characteristics of the onset and cessation of the rains in Nigeria. This finding corroborates the zonal (north-south) pattern evident in the spatial distribution of the early, normal and late onset and cessation of the rains in the country. However, it was found that the combination of ITD and disturbance line together proved significant for explaining the spatial variation in the characteristics of the onset and cessation of the rains in Nigeria. Consequently, a south-northeast trend in the spatial pattern of each of early, normal and late onset and cessation of the rains in evident for the country. The combination of the 3 factors-ITD, disturbance line and relief were found to be significant for predicting the late onset and early cessation of the rains. However, the contribution due to relief factor is extremely low. It is observed that the occurrence of onset and cessation of the rains in Nigeria is generally erratic. The study showed further that the probability of the deviation of onset and cessation of the rains from normal is higher in the north than the southern part of the country. The significant of the observations of the study to selection of crops for cultivation and schedule of planting dates have been noted.