The interpretation of IPCC probabilistic statements around the world

被引：157

作者：

Budescu D.V. ^{[1
]}

Por H.-H. ^{[1
]}

Broomell S.B. ^{[2
]}

Smithson M. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Psychology, Fordham University, Bronx, NY 10458

[2] Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213

[3] Research School of Psychology, Bldg 39, Australian National University

来源：

Nature Climate Change | 2014年 / 4卷 / 6期

基金：

美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

D O I：

10.1038/nclimate2194

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) uses verbal descriptions of uncertainty (for example, Unlikely) to convey imprecision in its forecasts and conclusions. Previous studies showed that the American public misinterprets these probabilistic statements. We report results from a multi-national study involving 25 samples in 24 countries and 17 languages. As predicted, laypeople interpret IPCC statements as conveying probabilities closer to 50% than intended by the IPCC authors. We show that an alternative presentation format supplementing the verbal terms with numerical ranges increases the correspondence between the publicâ (tm) s interpretations and the IPCC guidelines, and the terms are better differentiated. These qualitative patterns are remarkably stable across all samples and languages. In fact, interpretations of the terms in various languages are more similar under the new presentation format. These results suggest changing the way the IPCC communicates uncertainty. © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited.

引用

页码：508 / 512

页数：4

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