Trends in parameterization, economics and host behaviour in influenza pandemic modelling: A review and reporting protocol

被引：16

作者：

Carrasco L.R. ^{[1
,2
]}

Jit M. ^{[3
]}

Chen M.I. ^{[4
,5
,6
]}

Lee V.J. ^{[4
,7
,8
]}

Milne G.J. ^{[9
]}

Cook A.R. ^{[1
,4
,10
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Statistics and Applied Probability, National University of Singapore, Singapore

[2] Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, Singapore

[3] Modelling and Economics Unit, Health Protection Agency, London

[4] Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore

[5] Program in Emerging Infectious Diseases, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore

[6] Communicable Disease Centre, Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore

[7] Biodefence Centre, Ministry of Defence, Singapore

[8] Centre for Health Services Research, National University of Singapore, Singapore

[9] School of Computer Science and Software Engineering, University of Western Australia, Crawley, WA

[10] Program in Health Services and Systems Research, Duke-NUS Graduate Medical School, Singapore

来源：

Emerging Themes in Epidemiology | / 10卷 / 1期

关键词：

Bayesian inference; Behaviour; Economic analysis; Epistemology of simulation; Influenza; Pandemic modelling;

D O I：

10.1186/1742-7622-10-3

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Background: The volume of influenza pandemic modelling studies has increased dramatically in the last decade. Many models incorporate now sophisticated parameterization and validation techniques, economic analyses and the behaviour of individuals. Methods. We reviewed trends in these aspects in models for influenza pandemic preparedness that aimed to generate policy insights for epidemic management and were published from 2000 to September 2011, i.e. before and after the 2009 pandemic. Results: We find that many influenza pandemics models rely on parameters from previous modelling studies, models are rarely validated using observed data and are seldom applied to low-income countries. Mechanisms for international data sharing would be necessary to facilitate a wider adoption of model validation. The variety of modelling decisions makes it difficult to compare and evaluate models systematically. Conclusions: We propose a model Characteristics, Construction, Parameterization and Validation aspects protocol (CCPV protocol) to contribute to the systematisation of the reporting of models with an emphasis on the incorporation of economic aspects and host behaviour. Model reporting, as already exists in many other fields of modelling, would increase confidence in model results, and transparency in their assessment and comparison. © 2013 Carrasco et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

引用

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