Forecasting crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels

被引：9

作者：

Ye M. ^{[1
]}

Zyren J. ^{[2
]}

Shore J. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] St. Mary's College of Maryland,

[2] Department of Energy,undefined

来源：

International Advances in Economic Research | 2002年 / 8卷 / 4期

关键词：

Price Change; Petroleum Production; Market Behavior; Forecast Price; Demand Change;

D O I：

10.1007/BF02295507

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

This paper presents a short-term monthly forecasting model of West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price using OECD petroleum inventory levels. Theoretically, petroleum inventory levels are a measure of the balance, or imbalance, between petroleum production and demand, and thus provide a good market barometer of crude oil price change. Based on an understanding of petroleum market fundamentals and observed market behavior during the post-Gulf War period, the model was developed with the objectives of being both simple and practical, with required data readily available. As a result, the model is useful to industry and government decision-makers in forecasting price and investigating the impacts of changes on price, should inventories, production, imports, or demand change. (JEL Q40, C53).

引用

页码：324 / 333

页数：9

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