Modeling the Effects of Global Climatic Change at the Ecotone of Boreal Larch Forest and Temperate Forest in Northeast China

The dynamics of the forest at the ecotone of the boreal forest and temperate forest in Northeast China were simulated using the adapted gap model BKPF under global climatic change (GFDL scenario) and doubled CO2 concentrations at 50 years in the future. The response of tree species and species with similar biological characteristics under global climate change and double CO2 concentrations were based on biophysical limits of the tree species in the area and their biological competition. The results showed that after 50 years the stand density and LAI (leaf area index) of the forest growing from a clear-cut would not be significantly different from those under current conditions. Stand productivity would increase about 7%, and stand aboveground biomass would increase 15%. However, the stand density of the current mature forest would be reduced by more than 20%. The stand would be dominated by Quercus mongolica Fisch., Populus davidiana Dode., Betula spp. and other broadleaved tree species, and Quercus mongolica would account for about 50% of the total density. The stand biomass would be reduced by more than 90%. Quercus mongolica would comprise about 57% of the total stand biomass. The stand productivity would not change significantly, but it would be comprised mainly of Quercus mongolica, Populus davidiana, Betula spp. The current stand height would decrease slightly. The stand LAI would decline dramatically, moreover, Quercus mongolica would comprise about 50% of the stand LAI.