ESTIMATION OF THE MESOZOIC GEOLOGICAL TIME-SCALE

Geological time scales are constructed by combining the stratigraphic record with radiometric dates and their standard deviations. The stratigraphic record encompasses litho-, bio-, chrono-, and magnetostratigraphy. The statistical methods employed should embody concepts and data available for the systems considered. Recently, in order to estimate the ages of 31 Mesozoic stage boundaries, use was made of a database with chronostratigraphic classifications for 340 dates, biostratigraphic data including ammonite subzones, and information on seafloor spreading. This paper is primarily concerned with the propagation of errors through the successive steps of the data analysis. The following stepwise approach was taken for combining the different types of data: (1) maximum likelihood estimation with windows set around prior stage boundary estimates, (2) averaging of estimates with variable precision including magnetochronologic data, and (3) calibration by means of cubic smoothing splines assuming equal duration of ammonite subzones. The end product is a time-scale in which the stage boundary ages are accompanied by approximate 95 per cent confidence intervals.