DISEASE REVEALS THE PREDATOR - SARCOPTIC MANGE, RED FOX PREDATION, AND PREY POPULATIONS

An epizootic of sarcoptic mange was prevalent among Scandinavian red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) during the late 1970s and 1980s. By substantially reducing the population density of foxes, the epizootic created a natural experiment on the importance of fox predation for prey density. The fox population started to recover during the late 1980s. We monitored the populations of the fox and its prey [voles (Cricetidae), mountain hare (Lepus timidus), European hare (L. europaeus), Capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus), Black Grouse (T. tetrix), Hazel Grouse (Bonasa bonasia), and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus)] throughout the event, on a local (10(1)-10(2) km(2)), a regional (10(4) km(2)), and a national scale. Methods included den counts, snap-trapping, pellet/dropping counts, counts of displaying birds, young/adult ratio from incidental observations of deer, regional questionnaires, and national hunting records. The study revealed red fox predation as a crucial factor in limiting the numbers of hares and grouse as well as fawns per doe of roe deer in autumn, and in conveying the 3-4 yr cyclic fluctuation pattern of voles to small game. The classical view, that predators take but a ''doomed surplus'' of their prey, was false for these species in Scandinavia.