SHORT-TERM PREDICTION OF TRAFFIC VOLUME IN URBAN ARTERIALS

被引：407

作者：

HAMED, MM

ALMASAEID, HR

SAID, ZMB

机构：

[1] Dept. of Civ. Engrg., Jordan Univ. of Sci. and Technol.

来源：

JOURNAL OF TRANSPORTATION ENGINEERING-ASCE | 1995年 / 121卷 / 03期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1061/(ASCE)0733-947X(1995)121:3(249)

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

This paper attempts to develop time-series models for forecasting traffic volume in urban arterials. The Box-Jenkins approach is used to estimate the time-series models. A 1-min data set representing traffic volume on five major urban arterials were available to estimate time-series models. The Box-Jenkins auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model of order (0, 1, 1) turned out to be the most adequate model in reproducing all original time series. The developed model is easy to understand and implement. Further, the model is computationally tractable, and only requires the storage of the last forecasted error and current traffic observation.

引用

页码：249 / 254

页数：6

共 12 条

[1]

Ahmed S., Cook A., Application of time-series analysis techniques to freeway incident detection, Transp. Res. Rec, 84, pp. 19-21, (1982)

[2]

Ahmed S., "Operational Filtering of Traffic Data.", 8, 1, pp. 19-32, (1989)

[3]

Bani Said Z.M., Short-term forecasting of traffic volume in Amman's Urban Arterials, ME Thesis, Dept. of Civ. Engrg, (1992)

[4]

Box G., Jenkins G., Time-Series Analysis: J(Jrecasting and Control, (1976)

[5]

Davis A.G., Nihan N.L., Hamed M.M., Jacohson L.N., Adaptive forecasting of freeway traffic congestion, Transp. Res. Rec, 287, pp. 29-33, (1990)

[6]

Jian L., Prediction of traffic flow hy an adaptive prediction system, Transp. Res. Rec, 287, pp. 54-61, (1990)

[7]

Jones D.W., Sullivan F.C., TSM: Tinkering superficially at the margin?, J. Transp. Engrg., ASCE, 104, pp. 817-834, (1978)

[8]

Nicholson H., Swann C.D., The prediction of traffic flow volumes hased on spectral analysis, Transp. Res, 8, pp. 533-538, (1974)

[9]

Nihan N.L., Davis G.A., Application of prediction-error minimization and maximum likelihood to estimate intersection 0-0 matrices from traffic counts, Tram.P. Sci, 23, 2, pp. 77-90, (1989)

[10]

Nihan N.L., Holmesland K.O., Use of the Box Jenkins time series techniques in traffic forecasting, Tramp, 9, 125-143, (1980)

← 1 2 →