MATHEMATICAL SIMULATION OF THE SUBSIDENCE OF RAVENNA

Land subsidence at Ravenna is the result of aquitard and reservoir compaction caused, respectively, by extensive groundwater withdrawals from the unconsolidated Quaternary basin and gas production from a number of pre-Quaternary pools scattered over the area. Water pumpage paralleled the postwar industrial development of Ravenna until the middle seventies when consumption was drastically curtailed owing to the economic crisis and the activation of a new aqueduct. Gas production started in 1952. The exploitation of several reservoirs is currently under way and the search for new fields is still in progress. Geodetic records indicate that the maximum cumulative subsidence over the period 1950-1986, including a natural geologic settlement of perhaps 2 mm/yr, has been 1.30 m in the industrial zone of Ravenna. In 1980 the municipality promoted a reconnaissance study with the primary aim of providing the information base needed to reconstruct the actual occurrence, understand correctly the physical behavior and produce the essential input data to a mathematical model which realistically relates the subsidence of the city to groundwater withdrawal and gas removal with an emphasis on their respective influences. The results from the three-dimensional numerical simulations, performed with the aid of mixed finite element, finite difference and integral models, show that the primary responsibility for the regional land sinking should be placed on the subsurface water overdraft which occurred until the middle 1970s. Gas withdrawal plays a role restricted to the area overlying each reservoir with a magnitude depending on the depth of burial, thickness of mineralized rocks and overall volumetric production. A major environmental impact may be expected where the gas subsidence bowl is intersected by the Adriatic coastline.