PROGNOSTIC FACTORS FOR PROLONGED PROGRESSION-FREE SURVIVAL WITH HIGH-DOSE CHEMOTHERAPY WITH AUTOLOGOUS STEM-CELL SUPPORT FOR ADVANCED BREAST-CANCER

Purpose: With a median observation time of 50 months from transplant, 13 (22%) of 62 women with metastatic breast cancer treated with high-dose chemotherapy at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (DFCl)/Beth Israel Hospital (BIH) remain progression-free. This study determined factors prognostic for prolonged progression-free survival (PFS). Methods: From June 1988 to January 1992, women who responded to standard chemotherapy received high-dose cyclophosphamide, thiotepo, and carboplatin with autotransplantation. Date encompassing initial breast cancer diagnosis, metastatic presentation, and response to induction treatment were examined for correlations with improved PFS. Results: The 5-year PFS rate for the entire group is estimated to be 21% (95% confidence interval [Cl], 10% to 32%). For those patients who attained a complete response (CR) to induction therapy, the 5-year PFS rate is estimated to be 31% (95% Cl, 0% to 63%). In univariate analyses, a single metastatic site, CR to induction therapy, prolonged interval from primary diagnosis to first metastases, estrogen receptor (ER)-negative tumors, and older age (greater than or equal to 40 years) were associated with prolonged PFS. In multivariate analyses, single metastatic site (P = .002) and attainment of a CR to induction chemotherapy (P = .04) were the most significant predictors for PFS, with a strong trend observed for an interval from primary diagnosis to onset of metastatic disease of 24+ months (P = .066). Conclusion: We and others have shown that 10% to 25% of women with metastatic breast cancer are progression-free after high-dose chemotherapy with autotransplantation. Those with chemosensitive disease, minimal tumor bulk, and a prolonged disease-free interval appear to benefit most. Emphasis should continue to focus on the development of more effective cytotoxic regimens and biologic approaches to increase the percentage of patients who may benefit from this approach. (C) 1995 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.