THE RISE OF THE INDIVIDUAL-BASED MODEL IN ECOLOGY

Recent advances of three different kinds are driving a change in the way that modelling is being done in ecology. First, the theory of chaos tells us that short-term predictions of nonlinear systems will be difficult, and long-term predictions will be impossible. The grave implications this has for ecology are only just beginning to be understood. Second, ecologists have started to recognize the importance of local interactions between individuals in ecological systems. And third, improvements in computer power and software are making computers more inviting as a primary tool for modelling. The combination of these factors may have far-reaching consequences for ecological theory.