THE PLUCKING MODEL OF BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS REVISITED

Some twenty-five years ago, I suggested a model of business fluctuations that stresses occasional events producing contractions and subsequent revivals rather than a self-generating cyclical process. Evidence for the past quarter century, like evidence presented in my earlier paper for a longer period, supports the view that the model is a useful way to interpret business fluctuations and has sufficiently important implications to justify further empirical work for both the United States and other countries.