OVERALL PROBABILITY OF DETECTION IN CONNECTION WITH OPTIMIZATION OF SAFEGUARDS EFFORT

A model for inspection, and its application to a reprocessing plant of the Nuclear Fuel Services type, have been developed. Two possible means of diverting material are: diverting material within the uncertainty of the material balance, and falsifying data. Statistical tests are performed by the inspecting authority: in the first case, the inspector compares material unaccounted for with a significance threshold, while in the second case, a sample of the reported data is compared with his own remeasurements. Both methods are combined, and the optimal control and diversion strategies are computed (for an assumed probability of a false alarm and the amount to be diverted).