UNITED-STATES BILATERAL TRADE EQUATIONS - FORECASTS AND STRUCTURAL STABILITY

被引：21

作者：

CUSHMAN, DO

机构：

[1] Department of Economics, University of South Florida, Tampa

来源：

APPLIED ECONOMICS | 1990年 / 22卷 / 08期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1080/00036849000000137

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

In this paper actual recent US trade values are compared with out-of-sample forecasts using a standard specification for real bilateral trade value equations. Though fairly accurate on average, there are large bilateral errors. A battery of coefficient stability tests indicates significant instability more often for imports over the forecast period and more often for exports over the latter part of the estimation period. Thus, standard bilateral trade equations appear to violate the basic regression assumption of stability and may be of little use for forecasting. © 1990, Taylor & Francis Group, LLC. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：1093 / 1102

页数：10

共 19 条

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[2]

BERGSTRAND JH, 1987, NEW ENGL ECON REV, P19

[3]

BROWN RL, 1975, J ROY STAT SOC B MET, V37, P149

[4] TESTS OF EQUALITY BETWEEN SETS OF COEFFICIENTS IN 2 LINEAR REGRESSIONS [J].