A REVIEW OF ENSO PREDICTION STUDIES

A hierarchy of ENSO (El Nino/Southern Oscillation) prediction schemes has been developed which includes statistical schemes and physical models. The statistical models are, in general, based on advanced statistical techniques and can be classified into models which use either low-frequency variations in the atmosphere (sea level pressure or surface wind) or upper ocean heat content as predictors. The physical models consist of coupled ocean-atmosphere models of varying degrees of complexity, ranging from simplified coupled models of the 'shallow water'-type to coupled general circulation models. All models, statistical and physical, perform considerably better than the persistence forecast on predicting typical indices of ENSO on lead times of 6 to 12 months. The most successful prediction schemes, the fully physical coupled ocean-atmosphere models, show significant prediction abilities at lead times exceeding one year period. We therefore conclude that ENSO is predictable at least one year in advance. However, all of this applies to gross indices of ENSO such as the Southern Oscillation Index. Despite the demonstrated predictability, little is known about the predictability of specific features known to be associated with ENSO (e.g. Indian Monsoon rainfall, Southern African drought, or even off-equatorial sea surface temperature). Nor has the relative importance for prediction of different regional anomalies or different physical processes yet been established. A seasonal dependence in predictability is well established, but the processes responsible for it are not fully understood.