ESTIMATION OF THE JOINT RISK FROM MULTIPLE-COMPOUND EXPOSURE BASED ON SINGLE-COMPOUND EXPERIMENTS

In the absence of data from multiple‐compound exposure experiments, the health risk from exposure to a mixture of chemical carcinogens is generally based on the results of the individual single‐compound experiments. A procedure to obtain an upper confidence limit on the total risk is proposed under the assumption that total risk for the mixture is additive. It is shown that the current practice of simply summing the individual upper‐confidence‐limit risk estimates as the upper‐confidence‐limit estimate on the total excess risk of the mixture may overestimate the true upper bound. In general, if the individual upper‐confidence‐limit risk estimates are on the same order of magnitude, the proposed method gives a smaller upper‐confidence‐limit risk estimate than the estimate based on summing the individual upper‐confidence‐limit estimates; the difference increases as the number of carcinogenic components increases. Copyright © 1990, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved