IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN CLIMATIC AVERAGES AND VARIABILITY ON FOOD-PRODUCTION OPPORTUNITIES IN ONTARIO, CANADA

This paper explores the implications of changes in climatic averages and a range in precipitation levels on food production opportunities at the farm, regional and provincial levels for the province of Ontario. A doubling in atmospheric CO2 or its equivalent would contribute to extended frost-free seasons throughout Ontario, and possibly increase year-to-year variability in precipitation. At the farm level, these changes imply greater fluctuations in annual farm profits. The benefits of longer frost-free seasons would be impaired during years with relatively low precipitation, and under these conditions, the security of the province's food supply would be at risk.