A TIME-SERIES CONSTRUCTION OF AN ALERT THRESHOLD WITH APPLICATION TO S-BOVISMORBIFICANS IN FRANCE

被引：25

作者：

WATIER, L

RICHARDSON, S

HUBERT, B

机构：

[1] Institut National de la Santé Et de la Recherche Médicale, Unité 170, Villejuif, 94807, 16, avenue Paul Vaillant Couturier

[2] Bureau Des Maladies Transmissibles, Paris, 75700, 1, place Fontenoy

来源：

STATISTICS IN MEDICINE | 1991年 / 10卷 / 10期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1002/sim.4780101003

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Epidemiological surveillance can be used to initiate preventive measures and Salmonella infection is a prime example of application. It is important that any unusual increase of reported cases should be detected as rapidly as possible. Reliable forecasts based on a suitable model of the temporal structure of a pathological indicator are necessary for the elaboration of an alert threshold. We first discuss the specific problems associated with the identification and the estimation of the temporal structure of indicators of infectious diseases when they present both epidemic peaks and an underlying stationary structure. Then we consider how an alert threshold can be defined. Our application concerns infections caused by S. bovismorbificans in France for which an alert threshold is constructed and tested both retrospectively and prospectively.

引用

页码：1493 / 1509

页数：17

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