PREDICTING MORTALITY AMONG INDEPENDENTLY LIVING RURAL ELDERLY - A 20-YEAR LONGITUDINAL-STUDY

The problem of predicting mortality among rural elderly (65 years and older) living independently is examined using 20‐year panel data derived from a random multistage cluster sample. Fifteen independent variables, including social networks, age, sex, and health status, were hypothesized on theoretical and empirical grounds to predict mortality. Face‐to‐face structured interviews were conducted with the same respondents in 1966, 1974, and 1986/87. Logistic regression establishes that a model comprising age, sex, participation in formal organizations, relative and children association, and general health status is a powerful predictor of mortality. The authors conclude that the more heterogeneous formal, or secondary, social networks which may enhance self esteem are most functional for the elderly. Copyright © 1990, Wiley Blackwell. All rights reserved