STRUCTURAL-CHANGES, ILL HEALTH, AND MORTALITY IN SWEDEN, 1963-1983 - A MACROAGGREGATED STUDY

An exploratory time series analysis was performed on selected indicators of structural change, health behavior, and ill health in Sweden in the years 1963-1983. Both synchronic (nonlagged) and asynchronic (lagged) analyses were made. The synchronic analysis of ariations in the suicide rate reveals two main contributory factors: level of employment and overtime work. For cardiovascular mortality in men, the synchronic and the two-year time lagged analyses reveal that the sale of alcohol and, to a certain extent, the length of the period of unemployment play a major role. In an an alysis with a three-year time lag, only one significant factor for both men and women is revealed, namely the level of employment. In the synchronic analysis of cirrhosis mortality in men, the sale of alcohol plays a dominant role. The results of the synchronic analysis of the variations in sick leave show a similar pattern for both men and women. In both cases, the sale of alcohol is positively associated and the proportion of unemployed industrial workers negatively associated with sick leave. The results give rise to a number of questions. For example, how should these findings be interpreted and how should they be related to exsiting knowledge about the links between business cycles and changes in the health of the population? The answers to such questions are of importance both from a scientific viewpoint and with regard to health policy. We argue that the answers require further studies of the characteristics of the periods in the business cycle and of how these periods affect people's lives, living conditions, and behavioral patterns in general.