ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS - TOURISM TRENDS TO 2000

被引：25

作者：

SMERAL, E

WITT, SF

WITT, CA

机构：

[1] UNIV BRADFORD, OPERAT MANAGEMENT, BRADFORD BD7 1DP, W YORKSHIRE, ENGLAND

[2] UNIV COLL SWANSEA, TOURISM STUDIES, SWANSEA SA2 8OO, W GLAM, WALES

来源：

ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH | 1992年 / 19卷 / 03期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1016/0160-7383(92)90130-H

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

A complete system of demand equations is specified in order to generate forecasts of tourism imports and exports for various major geographical areas. The forecasts are presented for the period 1991-2000 under three alternative assumptions-there is no change in the external environment (baseline scenario), the completion of the single internal market of the European Community takes place, and the recent liberalization and general creation of market economies in Eastern Europe is allowed for. A comparison of the latter two scenarios with the baseline scenario permits the calculation of the effects of these changes on tourism demand.

引用

页码：450 / 466

页数：17

共 20 条

[1]

Cecchini P., 1988, EUROPEAN CHALLENGE 1

[2]

DEATON A, 1980, AM ECON REV, V70, P312

[3]

European Commission, 1985, COMPL INT MARK WHIT

[4]

LITTLE JS, 1980, NEW ENGL ECON REV, P42