PREDICTING ADOLESCENT DRINKING FROM ALCOHOL EXPECTANCY VALUES - A COMPARISON OF ADDITIVE, INTERACTIVE, AND NONLINEAR MODELS

Additive, interactive, and nonlinear models of alcohol expectancy values were compared using survey data from 1,758 high school students. Expectancies and values independently predicted drinking in the additive model. Expectancies were more important as predictors than were values, and negative expectancies were more important than positive expectancies. Significant expectancy-value interactions also were found. Drinking was highest when positive consequences were believed to be likely and desirable and was lowest when negative consequences were believed to be likely and undesirable. Significant nonlinearities indicated that beliefs about negative consequences had greater effects at lower levels of likelihood and evaluation whereas beliefs about positive consequences had greater effects at higher levels of likelihood and evaluation. However, the interactive and nonlinear effects were small.