MODELING STREAMWATER CHEMISTRY AS A MIXTURE OF SOILWATER END-MEMBERS - A STEP TOWARDS 2ND-GENERATION ACIDIFICATION MODELS

In present acidification models, soilwater characteristics, though modelled, are seldom checked against field observations. Given that such data are now collected as part of many catchment studies, a technique is developed whereby stream water can be predicted as a mixture of the observed soilwater classes or end-members. Provided that a sufficient set of end-members has been identified, a least-squares technique can be used to estimate the contribution to the stream from each end-member, whenever streamwater samples have been taken. For two catchments, Birkenes in southern Norway and Plynlimon in Mid-Wales, the analysis indicates that the soilwater end-members observed to date are insufficient to explain streamwater chemistry. However, properties of the missing soil waters have been identified, thus facilitating future field work. When an adequate set of soilwater end-members has been established, long-term predictions of changes in streamwater chemistry reduce to the problem of predicting the fate of each end-member. Thus, a separate hydrological submodel is not needed, since the mixing patterns are derived from the end-member analysis. © 1990.