STATION RELIABILITY EVALUATION USING A MONTE-CARLO APPROACH

This paper presents a time sequential Monte Carlo simulation approach to reliability assessment of substation and switching stations. The technique is illustrated by application to a practical configuration and used to evaluate the station reliability indices which are then compared with those obtained using an analytical method. The study results show that the simulation method can provide acceptable indices. The simulation approach is also used to perform station sensitivity analysis by varying selected station component parameters. This type of analysis can play an important role in improving power system reliability and is essential and necessary in the selection of critical components. The Monte Carlo procedure is utilized to develop probability distributions associated with the station reliability indices. The paper illustrates how the simulation method can provide additional indices which can not easily be obtained using an analytical method.