STATISTICAL GRADUATION IN LOCAL DEMOGRAPHIC-ANALYSIS AND PROJECTION

This paper considers parametric graduation for mortality, fertility and migration with particular reference to the development of parameterized local and regional demographic projections. Parametric graduations facilitate comparisons of demographic schedules across many areas and across time points-a feature which can be used to advantage in making forecasts of the three demographic components and thus in setting the assumptions for projections. Particular methodological issues raised are the questions of parsimony in fit and that of overdispersion in relation to binomial or Poisson assumptions. The analysis is illustrated with cross-sectional material for the 32 London boroughs and with time series at the level of Greater London.