FORECAST 2000 - A PREDICTION OF SKILLS, KNOWLEDGE, AND ABILITIES REQUIRED BY SENIOR MEDICAL-TREATMENT FACILITY LEADERS INTO THE 21ST-CENTURY

This paper reports results from a Delphi study conducted among the Commanders and Deputy Commanders for Administration of 37 Army medical treatment facilities (MTFs), who identified the most important issues challenging their institutions for the remainder of this decade, and the skills, knowledge, and abilities required by MTF leaders to deal successfully with those challenges. A Delphi mail-out was conducted in two iterations. Respondents identified 187 health care issues which were divided by content into nine domains by a panel of health care experts. The domains, ranked by importance, were cost-finance, health care delivery, access to care, quality and risk management, technology, professional staff relations, leadership, marketing, and ethics. In the second Delphi iteration, MTF leaders agreed upon the necessary skills, knowledge, and abilities of future leaders. Results indicated that future leadership will require enhanced financial, quantitative, and technical skills, as well as competence in a broad array of interpersonal and communication skills. Implications for military medical leader development initiatives are discussed.