STOCK-RECRUITMENT MODELS FOR PACIFIC SARDINE (SARDINOPS-SAGAX)

We used generalized additive models to study the recruitment of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) along western North America and to compare the effects of fishing and environmental factors on the stock. We found significant relationships between the logarithm of sardine reproductive success (recruits per unit of spawning biomass) and average sea surface temperature (SST), as well as between sardine recruitment, spawning biomass, and average SST. Simulation and time series analyses were used to evaluate bias, variance, and statistical power for one of our models. Correlation with log reproductive success was highest when average SST data included temperatures after the period of larval development, indicating that recruitment estimates were affected by environmentally driven changes in availability of older sardine to the fishery. Predicted equilibrium biomass and MSY for sardine are lower under environmental conditions that prevail when temperatures are colder. Long-term fluctuations in the environment may cause long-term fluctuations in sardine productivity, and little or no sardine harvest may be sustainable during periods of adverse environmental conditions and cold temperatures.