FORECASTING THE ABUNDANCE OF THE SEA NETTLE, CHRYSAORA-QUINQUECIRRHA, IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY

The sea nettle shows variable seasonal infestation in the Chesapeake Bay. Public interest in the medusal population prompted an examination of the effect of climatic, hydrographic, and biological variables on such changes. Visual medusal counts since 1960 were regressed in a stepwise fashion against the suite of variables, to produce an abundance model which allows a reasonable prediction of the forthcoming summer's infestation. Streamflow in the entire Chesapeake watershed for the months of January through June and the water temperature for May were most important. Lower streamflow apparently provides a salinity regime which supports the sessile stages early in the year and allows the survival and rapid growth of ephyrae in early summer. The water temperatures in May furnishes the trigger for strobilation at a propitious time.