RACE AND CRIME IN POSTWAR AMERICA - DETERMINANTS OF AFRICAN-AMERICAN AND WHITE RATES, 1957-1988

The idea that crime and deviance are explained mostly by access to opportunities-especially those provided by employment, income, education, and family stability-is one of the most powerful assumptions about crime in postwar America. However, despite its importance, the actual relationship between opportunity measures and crime during this period remains little understood. While cross-sectional studies of these issues have become common, few longitudinal studies exist and those that do include a limited number of variables. Moreover, despite important differences in the history and experiences of African-Americans and whites during this period, researchers have assumed similar dynamics by race. In this paper, we use annual time-series data from 1957-1988 to examine the effects of economic well-being, educational attainment, and family stability on rates of robbery, burglary, and homicide for blacks and whites. Our results show that these measures have different-usually opposite-effects on black and white crime rates during the period. In general, measures of opportunity have expected effects on white but not black rates. We consider the implications for policy and research.