ARCTIC SEA-ICE EXTENT AND THICKNESS

Current knowledge on Arctic sea ice extent and thickness variability is reviewed, and we examine whether measurements to date provide evidence for the impact of climate change. The total Arctic ice extent has shown a small but significant reduction of (2.1 +/- 0.9)% during the period 1978-87, after apparently increasing from a lower level in the early 1970s. However, open water within the pack ice limit has also diminished, so that the reduction of sea ice area is only (1.8 +/- 1.2)%. This stability conceals large interannual variations and trends in individual regions of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas, which are out of phase with one another and so have little net impact on the overall hemispheric ice extent. The maximum annual global extent (occurring during the Antarctic winter) shows a more significant decrease of 5% during 1972-87. Ice thickness distribution has been measured by submarine sonar profiling moored upward sonars, airborne laser profilometry, airborne electromagnetic techniques and drilling. Promising new techniques include: sonar mounted on an AUV or neutrally buoyant float; acoustic tomography or thermometry; and inference from a combination of microwave sensors. In relation to climate change, the most useful measurement has been repeated submarine sonar profiling under identical parts of the Arctic, which offers some evidence of a decline in mean ice thickness in the 1980s compared to the 1970s. The link between mean ice thickness and climatic warming is complex because of the effects of dynamics and deformation. Only fast ice responds primarily to air temperature changes and one can predict thinning of fast ice and extension of the open water season in fast ice areas. Another region of increasingly mild ice conditions is the central Greenland Sea where winter thermohaline convection is triggered by cyclic growth and melt of local young ice. In recent years convection to the bottom has slowed or ceased, possibly related to moderation of ice conditions.