SIMULATION-MODEL FOR THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TEMPERATE GRASSLAND ECOSYSTEMS

We studied the responses of temperate grasslands to climate change using a grassland ecosystem model which simulates seasonal dynamics of shoots, roots, soil water, mycorrhizal fungi, saprophytic microbes, soil fauna, inorganic nitrogen, plant residues and soil organic matter. Forty-year simulations were made for several climate change scenarios. The model was driven with observed weather and with combinations of elevated atmospheric CO2, elevated temperature, and either increased or decreased precipitation. Precipitation and CO2 level accounted for most of the variation among climate change treatments in the responses of soil, plants, animals and microbes. Elevated temperature extended the growing season but depressed photosynthesis in the summer, with little net effect on annual primary production. Doubling CO2 (1) caused persistent increases in primary production, in spite of greater nitrogen limitation, and (2) led to greater storage of carbon in plant residues and soil organic matter. The increased carbon storage was not great enough to keep pace with the present rate of increase in atmospheric CO2.