EMERGING TECHNOLOGY-EVALUATION METHODOLOGY - WITH APPLICATION TO MICRO-ELECTROMECHANICAL SYSTEMS

This paper proposes a methodology for evaluating emerging technologies at a very early stage of their development, when it is still possible to avoid costly investments that have little promise. Such a methodology is particularly important as product-development-cycle times continue to shrink. The methodology utilized, a triple-gateway methodology, is applied to four cases of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) as emerging technologies. The triple-gateway methodology postulates that a technology must pass through three gateways to become commercially or socially worthwhile: a market gateway, a systems-management gateway, and a technology gateway. We examine relevant issues in each of these gateways. In the market-gateway analysis, we look at the following elements of market uncertainty: new uses, user skepticism about ''improved'' performance characteristics, requirements for behavior adjustment by the user, competitive technologies, unpredictable technological developments, and legal barriers. In systems-management gateway analysis, we look at the key area of structure of the firm-in particular, at the four organizational modes: individual entrepreneurs; small, high-technology-oriented firms; large corporations with multiple products and multiple markets; and conglomerates, with multiple organizations and involved in multiple sectors. Across the technology-gateway threshold, we look at four elements of technology uncertainty: Innovativeness of technology, number of constituent technologies, manufacturing difficulties and institutional changes required to introduce the new technology.