INDICATORS OF PROGNOSIS IN NODE-NEGATIVE BREAST-CANCER

Measures of the proliferative activity of tumor cells have prognostic value in patients with node-negative breast cancer. We studied 367 women in southern Sweden who had undergone surgical resection for such cancer. Tumor specimens were analyzed with DNA flow cytometry in order to estimate both the DNA content (ploidy) and the fraction of cells in the synthetic phase of the cell cycle (S phase). The median duration of follow-up was four years; 28 percent of the patients received adjuvant therapy, usually with tamoxifen (n = 83). A multivariate analysis based on complete data on 250 patients included the following covariates: age (≥75, 50 to 74, and ≤49 years), tumor size (≤20 vs. >20 mm), concentration of estrogen and progesterone receptors (<10 vs. ≥10 fmol per milligram of protein), ploidy (diploid vs. nondiploid), and S-phase category (fraction of cells in S phase: <7.0 percent, 7.0 to 11.9 percent, and ≥12 percent). The S-phase fraction yielded the most prognostic information, followed by progesterone-receptor status and tumor size. A prognostic model based on these three variables identified 37 percent of the patients as constituting a high-risk group with a fourfold increased risk of distant recurrence. In the remaining 63 percent of the patients, the five-year overall survival rate (92±4 [±SE] percent) did not differ from the expected age-adjusted rate for Swedish women. We conclude that a prognostic index that Includes indicators of the proliferative activity of tumor cells may be able to identify women with node-negative breast cancer in whom the risk of recurrence is sufficiently low that adjuvant chemotherapy can be avoided. (N Engl J Med 1990; 322:1045–53.). © 1990, Massachusetts Medical Society. All rights reserved.