PERTURBATIONS TO TROPOSPHERIC OXIDANTS, 1985-2035 .1. CALCULATIONS OF OZONE AND OH IN CHEMICALLY COHERENT REGIONS

A one-dimensional photochemical model has been used to calculate future changes in tropospheric O3 and OH due to CO/NOx/CH4 emissions and to possible changes in stratospheric O3 and tropospheric H2O. Perturbations are simulated for various chemically coherent regions (eg urban and continental mid-latitudes, and marine and continental low latitudes) from 1985 to 2035. Both global and region-specific scenarios predict a global tropospheric O3 increase of ~10-15% from 1985 to 2035 with OH decreasing 10-15%. In the regionally varying scenarios, O3 will increase in some regions and decrease in others; for examples in regions of rapid CH4 and CO increase, growth in boundary layer O3 may be as high as 40%. -from Authors