EVALUATION OF SEVERAL METHODS FOR ESTIMATING PHYLOGENETIC TREES WHEN SUBSTITUTION RATES DIFFER OVER NUCLEOTIDE SITES

Several maximum likelihood and distance matrix methods for estimating phylogenetic trees from homologous DNA sequences were compared when substitution rates at sites were assumed to follow a gamma distribution. Computer simulations were performed to estimate the probabilities that various tree estimation methods recover the true tree topology. The case of four species was considered, and a few combinations of parameters were examined. Attention was applied to discriminating among different sources of error in tree reconstruction, i.e., the inconsistency of the tree estimation method, the sampling error in the estimated tree due to limited sequence length, and the sampling error in the estimated probability due to the number of simulations being Limited. Compared to the least squares method based on pairwise distance estimates, the joint likelihood analysis is found to be more robust when rate variation over sites is present but ignored and an assumption is thus violated. With limited data, the likelihood method has a much higher probability of recovering the true tree and is therefore more efficient than the least squares method. The concept of statistical consistency of a tree estimation method and its implications were explored, and it is suggested that, while the efficiency (or sampling error) of a tree estimation method is a very important property, statistical consistency of the method over a wide range of, if not all, parameter values is prerequisite.