THE TIME-SERIES BEHAVIOR OF BRAZILIAN REAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 1947-87 - AN ANALYSIS OF INTERVENTIONS

The evolution of Brazilian real gross domestic product in the post-World War II period has been far from stable. Some of this instability is almost certainly due to the impact of external shocks. In this paper we examine three such shocks, or interventions, which seem to have had particularly pronounced impacts on the Brazilian economy. These are the political upheavals and attendant economic reforms of the early 1960s, and the oil shocks of 1973 and 1979. We build a time-series model, which permits the analysis of interventions, for annual Brazilian real gross domestic product, and use this model to estimate the impact of these interventions.