POLITICAL-STRUCTURE AND FOREIGN-POLICY LEARNING - ARE DEMOCRACIES MORE LIKELY TO ACT ON THE LESSONS OF HISTORY

This paper assesses the impact of domestic political structure on whether a state's foreign policy will reflect the lessons of history. The paper focuses on one theory of learning in foreign policy, the formative events model. Drawing on social psychology and public opinion literatures, two arguments are made as to why the foreign policies of democracies may be more likely to reflect the lessons of formative events than those of non-democracies. Another argument, based on a bureaucratic learning model, is made as to why the foreign policies of non-democracies may be more likely than those of democracies to reflect the lessons of formative events. These hypotheses are then tested on behavior in three areas, alliances, crisis bargaining, and extended deterrence. The results indicate limited support for the hypothesis that the foreign policies of democracies are more likely to reflect the lessons of formative events than those of non-democracies.