EXPLAINING CHANGES IN TAX INCIDENCE IN THE STATES

This study examines state and local tax incidence over time in the fifty states. The use of new data (McIntyre et al. 1991) allowed me to test a number of explanations for variation in incidence change from 1985 to 1991. I found that while 1991 incidence was largely a function of 1985 incidence, other variables were also important. Economic growth, the lack of structural impediments to raising income tax rates, and, to a lesser extent, the presence of Democratic governors all appeared to be associated with greater progressivity over time. The strength of labor relative to business, also appeared to be an influence for greater progressivity.