COULD A MONETARY BASE RULE HAVE PREVENTED THE GREAT-DEPRESSION

被引:37
作者
MCCALLUM, BT [1 ]
机构
[1] NATL BUR ECON RES,CAMBRIDGE,MA 02138
关键词
D O I
10.1016/0304-3932(90)90029-4
中图分类号
F8 [财政、金融];
学科分类号
0202 ;
摘要
This paper continues an ongoing investigation of the properties of a policy rule that specifies settings of the monetary base that are designed to keep nominal GNP growing smoothly at a noninflationary rate. Counterfactual historical simulations for 1923-1941 are conducted with the rule and a small model of nominal GNP determination, estimated with U.S. quarterly data, with residuals fed in as estimates of the behavioral shocks that occurred. The simulation results indicate that nominal GNP would have been kept reasonably close to a steady three percent path over 1923-1941 if the rule had been in effect. © 1990.
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页码:3 / 26
页数:24
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