MODELING ARCTIC CLIMATE-CHANGE

Climate prediction requires the use of coupled models of the atmosphere-deep ocean-sea ice and land surface. This paper outlines the formulation of processes relevant to the simulation and prediction of climate change in the Arctic of one such model: that of the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at the Meteorological Office. Comparison of the simulation of a number of features of the Arctic climate is made against observations and predictions of future climate change resulting from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases from recent runs of the model are discussed.