Calcaneal BMD Obtained by Dual X-Ray and Laser Predicts Future Hip Fractures-A Prospective Study on 4 398 Swedish Women

The predictive value of dual X-ray and laser (DXL) calcaneal BMD (BMDDXL) on hip fractures was prospectively studied in 4,398 females aged 55 to 99 years. The average follow-up period was 3 years and 11 months with a total of 17,270 person years. Fractures were identified from the national patient register. After inclusion, 130 females sustained a hip fracture. The age adjusted hazard ratio for T-score < -2.5 versus > -2.5 was 2.64. Of all patients who sustained a hip fracture 78% had a T-score of -2.5 or below. The annual hip fracture rate was 0.26% at T-scores >= -2, but 1.5% at T-scores <= -2.5. The area under curve for the model including calcaneal BMDDXL, follow-up time, and age to prospectively predict hip fractures was 0.84. Conclusions. Calcaneal BMDDXL obtained by DXL Calscan predicts hip fractures and may therefore be suitable for diagnosing osteoporosis and for predicting fracture risk.