THE PREDICTION OF LONG-TERM OUTCOME OF MALE ALCOHOLICS AFTER INPATIENT TREATMENT - THE CASE OF A CLINICAL POPULATION IN GERMAN-SPEAKING SWITZERLAND

373 out of 497 patients treated between 1975 and 1984 in a Swiss clinic for male alcoholics could be traced for a follow-up study in 1988. Of these, 24% died between the time of leaving the clinic and the time of the interview. Among the survivors, almost 50% reported abstinence for at least the last 12 months. However, 132 (26%) of the former patients could not be traced. In many studies the majority of those lost cases are supposed to have died or to be unremitted, thus the effective results of the follow-up study are supposed to be less favorable had those cases been traced. In order to clarify this hypothesis, a discriminant analysis was performed to designate the actual life status/drinking status of those unknown cases using sociodemographic and drinking-style data of the statistical records of the clinic as independent (predictor) variables. The results show that the number of survivors among the untraced cases is estimated to be equal to those traced. However, the number of problem drinkers among the survivors is estimated to be higher amid the untraced than among those interviewed in the follow-up.