HOST-HOST-PATHOGEN MODELS AND MICROBIAL PEST-CONTROL - THE EFFECT OF HOST SELF-REGULATION

A model has been investigated of the dynamics of the interaction between two hosts that are both attacked by a common pathogen with free-living infective stages, where the hosts are also subject to self-regulation. If either host interacted with the pathogen alone, two types of dynamics would be possible: an uninfected state where the host settles at its carrying capacity, and an infected state where the host settles at, or cycles around, a density lower than the carrying capacity. The three possible combinations of two hosts have been investigated: uninfected-uninfected (both hosts uninfected if alone with the pathogen), infected-uninfected and infected-infected. A range of dynamics is generated, depending on parameter values, including infected co-existence of the two hosts (arrived at by a variety of routes), uninfected co-existence of the two hosts, exclusion of one host by the other which remains in an infected state, and a number of outcomes contingent on the initial densities in the system. Free-living infective stages make uninfected co-existence more likely and introduce additional contingency into the dynamics. The implications for microbial pest control are markedly different from those derived from related models without host self-regulation. There appears to be little chance of a non-target host undermining pest control, relatively little chance of the non-target enhancing pest control and a small but non-negligible threat to non-targets when parameter values are appropriate. The application of the results is commended but great caution is urged.