PROBABILITY OF ADVERSE EVENTS THAT HAVE NOT YET OCCURRED - A STATISTICAL REMINDER

被引：237

作者：

EYPASCH, E

LEFERING, R

KUM, CK

TROIDL, H

机构：

[1] II, Department of Surgery, University of Cologne, Kliniken der Stadt Koln, Ostmerheimer Str 200

来源：

BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL | 1995年 / 311卷 / 7005期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1136/bmj.311.7005.619

中图分类号：

R5 [内科学];

学科分类号：

1002 ; 100201 ;

摘要：

The probability of adverse and undesirable events during and after operations that have not yet occurred in a finite number of patients (n) can be estimated with Hanley's simple formula, which gives the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval of the probability of such an event: upper limit of 95% confidence interval=maximum risk=3/n (for n>30). Doctors and surgeons should keep this simple rule in mind when complication rates of zero are reported in the literature and when they have not (yet) experienced a disastrous complication in a procedure.

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页码：619 / 620

页数：2

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